#13 南极冰盖命运之问

Photo by Matt Palmer on Unsplash

南极洲西部的冰盖如果全部融化，将让全球海平面平均上升5米以上。而决定它的命运，同时也决定人类命运的关键，不在它白雪皑皑的表面，却在深邃的海底、神秘的冰层之下。

///marathon.volcano.chills

• 01:36 问题描述

• 07:16 气候变化如何影响冰盖

• 14:12 对南极基岩层的研究

• 19:25 一百年后的答案

北京 0~13℃，晴，西南风2级。

南极地图（东部在上）。取自地理教师网

海上冰盖不稳定性（MISI）机制示意图

音乐

Intro/Interlude

Cats Everywhere by A. Cooper / CC-BY 4.0

Interlude

Honey by Serge Quadrado / CC-BY-NC 4.0

Outro

Big Fire by Greg Kirkelie / CC-BY-NC-SA 4.0

参考资料

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• Morlighem, M. et al., 2020. Deep glacial troughs and stabilizing ridges unveiled beneath the margins of the Antarctic ice sheet. Nature Geoscience, 13 (2), 132–137. 10.1038/s41561-019-0510-8.

• Paolo, F.S., Fricker, H.A. and Padman, L., 2015. Volume loss from Antarctic ice shelves is accelerating. Science, 348 (6232), 327–331. 10.1126/science.aaa0940. “Overall, average ice-shelf volume change accelerated from negligible loss at 25 –+ 64 cubic kilometers per year for 1994–2003 to rapid loss of 310 –+ 74 cubic kilometers per year for 2003–2012. West Antarctic losses increased by ~70% in the past decade, and earlier volume gain by East Antarctic ice shelves ceased.”

• Benn, D.I. and Sugden, D.E., 2020. West Antarctic ice sheet and CO2 greenhouse effect: a threat of disaster. Scottish Geographical Journal, 136 (1–4), 13–23. 10.1080/14702541.2020.1853870.

• Antarctic oscillation

• Southern Annular Mode

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• Dinniman, M.S., Klinck, J.M. and Hofmann, E.E., 2012. Sensitivity of Circumpolar Deep Water Transport and Ice Shelf Basal Melt along the West Antarctic Peninsula to Changes in the Winds. Journal of Climate, 25 (14), 4799–4816. 10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00307.1.

• Hall, R.J. et al., 2025. Variability and Trends of the Amundsen Sea Low Since the Early 20th Century from Seasonal Station-based Reconstructions. [online]. Journal of Climate, 1 (aop). Available at: https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/aop/JCLI-D-25-0159.1/JCLI-D-25-0159.1.xml [Accessed 18 November 2025].

• Dotto, T.S. et al., 2019. Wind-Driven Processes Controlling Oceanic Heat Delivery to the Amundsen Sea, Antarctica. Journal of Physical Oceanography, 49 (11), 2829–2849. 10.1175/JPO-D-19-0064.1.

• Reed, B. et al., 2024. Melt sensitivity of irreversible retreat of Pine Island Glacier. The Cryosphere, 18 (10), 4567–4587. 10.5194/tc-18-4567-2024.

• Anon., 2017. Marine Ice Sheet Instability “For Dummies” [online blog]. Cryospheric Sciences. Available at: https://blogs.egu.eu/divisions/cr/2016/06/22/marine-ice-sheet-instability-for-dummies-2/ [Accessed 18 November 2025].

• The Hidden Landscape Holding Back the Sea

• Fretwell, P. et al., 2013. Bedmap2: improved ice bed, surface and thickness datasets for Antarctica. The Cryosphere, 7 (1), 375–393. 10.5194/tc-7-375-2013.

• Pritchard, H.D. et al., 2025. Bedmap3 updated ice bed, surface and thickness gridded datasets for Antarctica. Scientific Data, 12, 414. 10.1038/s41597-025-04672-y.

• Garcia, S.M. et al., 2023. Characterizing bed roughness on the Antarctic continental margin. Journal of Glaciology, 69 (278), 2114–2125. 10.1017/jog.2023.88.

• Wilson, S.F. et al., 2025. Detection of 85 new active subglacial lakes in Antarctica from a decade of CryoSat-2 data. Nature Communications, 16 (1), 8311. 10.1038/s41467-025-63773-9.

• Morlighem, M. et al., 2024. The West Antarctic Ice Sheet may not be vulnerable to marine ice cliff instability during the 21st century. Science Advances, 10 (34), eado7794. 10.1126/sciadv.ado7794.